MERLIN

     Merlin is a forecasting tool.

     Merlin uses data(X observed at Time T) prepared in the MicroBase spreadsheet as input.

     The variable -X- to be predicted might be, sales, weather, inventory, cash flow, or any 

value observed over  equal time intervals.The time(T) increment is 1.

     Merlin will find a triple exponentially smoothed series for the given time series:

                           X(T) = A + BT + C*T^2/2

     One other input variable is used to determine the relative weight given to the historical

data used in the smoothing process. This variable is commonly named ALPHA (0<ALPHA<1).

As ALPHA approaches 1 the more recent data grows in importance. Conversely - 
 
as ALPHA approaches 0 the estimate approaches the grand average of an infinite series

of observations. The default value of ALPHA is 0.3 .

    If A B and C are not specified then Merlin will compute these coefficients.

     Merlin will provide forecasts beyond the range of the input time series.

     A + B*T + C*T^2/2 is used with the computed values of A B and C.

<EOF>

 

      

     